The use of coal will continue to grow in the coming years, as the growing demand for electricity in developing countries is ahead of the transition to cleaner sources of electricity in industrialized countries.
Although the use of the most polluting fossil fuels in 2019 has had a historic decline, the International Energy Agency expects steady growth over the next five years. This means that the world will face a serious challenge in meeting its commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming.
“There are several signs of change,” the agency writes in its annual report on coal, published Tuesday in Paris. “Despite all the policy changes and announcements, our forecast is very similar to the ones we have made over the past few years.”
According to Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, senior energy analyst at the IEA in Paris, Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, while the largest decline in coal power is expected this year, this is mainly due to high hydropower growth and relatively low demand for electricity in India and China.
Despite the decline, in the coming years, global coal consumption is likely to increase, due to demand in India, China and Southeast Asia. Electricity production from coal increased by almost 2% in 2018 and reached a record level, remaining the world's largest source of electricity.
A stable forecast for coal comes despite a decline in demand in industrialized countries. Europe has set a goal of zeroing carbon dioxide pollution by the middle of the century, which would mean a sharp reduction in coal emissions. In the US, competition from natural gas has led to a decrease in coal demand, despite promises by President Donald Trump to revive the industry.
In Asia, another story that compensates for the decline in other countries. In India, with a population of more than 1.3 billion people, by 2024 coal production will increase by 4.6% per year, which will contribute to economic growth. In Southeast Asia, coal demand will grow by more than 5% annually. China, which accounts for almost half of global consumption, will also have modest growth with peak consumption in 2022.
“How we solve this problem in Asia is crucial for the long-term success of any global effort to reduce emissions,” Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, wrote in the introduction to the report.
